Josh Reddick: The Reason Lester Became an Athletic

 

 

What if I told you that the most important player in making the Jon Lester trade happen was not part of the deal? Not Lester, not outfield slugger Yoenis Cespedes, and not crazy man/energizer bunny Jonny Gomes. What if I told you the most influential player is front and center in the GIF above, stroking two grown men’s beards?

 

That’s right, A’s outfielder (and former Red Sox player, coincidentally enough) Josh Reddick was that important to Oakland trading Cespedes, the team’s cleanup hitter and arguably best known player. Reddick broke onto the scene in 2012 with the A’s, hitting 32 homers in 156 games with the club. Reddick’s slash line of .242/.305/.463 was far from fantastic, but his impressive power, great defense, and dirt dog mentality on the diamond made him a very valuable player.

 

However, in 2013 and the first half of 2014 Reddick went from an important part of the A’s lineup to an afterthought. A number of nagging injuries cut into his power and playing time, resulting in a pedestrian .153 isolated power in 2013. Having Cespedes in the lineup helped mask the inconsistencies of Reddick, who in 2012 actually posted a higher ISO than his more celebrated teammate (.221 to .214, respectively).

 

Reddick rejoined the team on July 22^nd this year after two extended stays on the disabled list, and the Athletics saw a completely different player in the nine games before the trading deadline. The unheralded outfielder had more doubles from July 22-30 (4) than he did in 51 games before his injury (3), as well as half as many home runs (2 post-injury and 4 pre-injury). This production certainly cannot be overlooked in the A’s front office’s decision to part with Yoenis Cespedes. Reddick profiles as a similar type player to Cespedes from the other side of the batters box: a low average, high power guy who plays solid defense. Add in Jonny Gomes to spell Reddick against the occasional tough lefty, and Oakland has poised itself to receive similar production from the outfield for the final two months of the season as well as in 2015. The A’s are all-in in their attempt to bring home the 2014 World Series while the Red Sox were steadfast at the deadline in their quest to acquire proven Major League talent; the Sox would only deal Lester for a player like Cespedes in return, and the Athletics would only be willing to deal an important part of their current lineup if they felt they had someone ready to pick up the slack. Without Reddick, Cespedes for Lester and Gomes would not have even been considered by the A’s.

 

Of course, the question we must ask ourselves in any such case is if the player’s production will be sustainable. For Reddick, the answer is no. Reddick’s ISO and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the second half are much higher than his career averages. These are two of the most volatile metrics in baseball, and large differences from career norms can often be attributed to luck and/or small sample sizes, both of which are factors here. In addition, according to Baseball Heat Maps Reddick’s average fly ball length has been only one foot greater post-injury than pre-injury, implying he has had some luck with fly balls turning into doubles or home runs.

 

That being said, Reddick’s recent production should not be completely discounted. His line drive and strikeout rates are a good sign at nearly 5% and 15% better than his career averages, respectively, suggesting that the slugger is seeing the ball and squaring it up better since his return from the DL. This is not to mention the value of having Reddick back in the field for the second half, where he has always excelled.

 

Over the past year and a half, Josh Reddick has not looked like the great player he was in 2012. However, with some nagging injuries behind him Reddick looks poised for a solid, if not spectacular, end of 2014. With the A’s in win now mode, trading Cespedes for an ace in Jon Lester with Reddick ready to make up for the lost production makes perfect sense, and is why he is the man who made this deal possible.

 

And now for your viewing entertainment, a collection of some of my favorite Josh Reddick GIFs. You’re welcome.

 

Showing off the cannon

 

“If you test me, you will fail” -Josh Reddick (probably)

 

PIMP IT JOSH!

 

Nbd, just Reddick doing his best Spiderman impression

 

Oops, he did it again! IN THE SAME GAME, PEOPLE

 

Nothing like a couple of celebratory pies to the face

 

“Sorry about that pie man, high fi–OH WAIT I GOT TWO PIES!”

Proof That Even Future Future Hall of Famers are Mortal

 

Derek Jeter’s impending retirement after this season has garnered lots of attention, as he has embarked on a farewell tour akin to Mariano Rivera’s a season ago where teams celebrate the captain’s career (much to my chagrin I might add. Seriously, does Jeter need a base and framed picture from every team in Major League Baseball? And does SportsCenter need to cover each touching farewell moment from July to September?).

But I digress. Jeter’s retirement has led to a well-deserved celebration of his illustrious career and some lamentation of his regressing skill set. Most people recognize that the five time Gold Glove winner’s range is not what it used to be, but many sabermetricians argue Jeter was never a great defender. Jeter appears smooth in the field and rarely commits errors, which for many years led to the impression that he was an elite defensive shortstop, but as more accurate methods of measuring defensive value have been created Jeter’s prowess in the field has come into question. This is by no means a groundbreaking analysis, but for fun let’s see how Jeter compared in his prime defensively to other shortstops, and where he stacks up now.

     

Above are charts with fielding statistics for all qualifying shortstops in the years Jeter won his Gold Gloves. Before we get into what this means, let’s talk about the stats I chose to use. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) are both counting stats that calculate the number of runs above or below average a player contributes defensively. Although there is some variance between the two, both statistics pull from the same data pool and account for defensive range, ability to turn double plays, and sure-handedness. UZR/150 simply calculates UZR per 150 games, making it easier to compare defenders who have played a different number of innings. While these stats are far from perfect, they are more relevant than traditional defensive measurements such as fielding percentage and errors, which most notably do not take range into account. For more information on DRS and UZR, I suggest checking out Fangraphs’ definitions here and here.

 

Although there is some variation between DRS and UZR, these charts show fairly conclusively that Jeter was never near one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. In fact, only in 2009 did Jeter grade out as an above average defensive shortstop (to clarify, 0 is weighted to average, +5 is good, +10 is great, and +15 is excellent. The inverse is true for negatives). When Jeter won his Gold Gloves he rated out as at best a good defender, and at worst a pretty bad one. If Jeter was this mediocre when he was considered one of the best defenders in baseball, how bad is he now? Let’s look.

Because we do not yet have a full season’s worth of data from this year, I decided to pull numbers from both 2013 and 2014 to determine Jeter’s current abilities. Of the 34 qualifying shortstops between these two years, Jeter ranks third to last in UZR/150 with -11.3 runs. This is not too far off from his Gold Glove years, and the numbers actually like him more now than they did in 2005.

 

But maybe there is some hope for Jeter, right? After all, defensive metrics like DRS and UZR tend to vary quite a bit and need large sample sizes to minimize other variables. So let’s compile a list of shortstops who played at least 7,000 innings (roughly five seasons) from when advanced defensive metrics were first recorded in 2002. Perhaps this will weed out some variability and shed new light on the subject. I will include innings, as there is sure to be quite a bit of variability that will affect DRS and UZR.

No such luck. Once again, Jeter finishes third to last and appears to be a below average defender. Keep in mind when comparing Jeter to this list that players who have been valuable enough to play 7,000 innings probably tend to be better defenders, but even so Jeter finishes with a negative DRS, UZR, and UZR/150.

 

So what does this mean? Well, Jeter may not be the defensive whiz many thought he was. While he has always graded well in more traditional statistics (if the last list was sorted by fielding percentage Jeter would come in tenth), the more complete defensive metrics show he is below average in the field. Yes, these metrics are not perfect, but a lack of perfection has not stopped us from attempting to use offensive stats to determine players’ value. Defensive metrics have come a long way in the past decade, and ignoring them simply because they buck tradition or make a great player seem mortal only prevents improvement in the evaluation process. After all, how can we determine who truly excels if we do not know who struggles?

 

By no means is this blog meant to discredit the accomplishments of Jeter. The Captain has won five World Series while playing the most demanding position in baseball for the most storied franchise in American professional sports (you do you, Manchester United). He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, a great teammate, and a worthy opponent. Just don’t put his defensive stats on the Cooperstown plaque.