Josh Reddick: The Reason Lester Became an Athletic

 

 

What if I told you that the most important player in making the Jon Lester trade happen was not part of the deal? Not Lester, not outfield slugger Yoenis Cespedes, and not crazy man/energizer bunny Jonny Gomes. What if I told you the most influential player is front and center in the GIF above, stroking two grown men’s beards?

 

That’s right, A’s outfielder (and former Red Sox player, coincidentally enough) Josh Reddick was that important to Oakland trading Cespedes, the team’s cleanup hitter and arguably best known player. Reddick broke onto the scene in 2012 with the A’s, hitting 32 homers in 156 games with the club. Reddick’s slash line of .242/.305/.463 was far from fantastic, but his impressive power, great defense, and dirt dog mentality on the diamond made him a very valuable player.

 

However, in 2013 and the first half of 2014 Reddick went from an important part of the A’s lineup to an afterthought. A number of nagging injuries cut into his power and playing time, resulting in a pedestrian .153 isolated power in 2013. Having Cespedes in the lineup helped mask the inconsistencies of Reddick, who in 2012 actually posted a higher ISO than his more celebrated teammate (.221 to .214, respectively).

 

Reddick rejoined the team on July 22^nd this year after two extended stays on the disabled list, and the Athletics saw a completely different player in the nine games before the trading deadline. The unheralded outfielder had more doubles from July 22-30 (4) than he did in 51 games before his injury (3), as well as half as many home runs (2 post-injury and 4 pre-injury). This production certainly cannot be overlooked in the A’s front office’s decision to part with Yoenis Cespedes. Reddick profiles as a similar type player to Cespedes from the other side of the batters box: a low average, high power guy who plays solid defense. Add in Jonny Gomes to spell Reddick against the occasional tough lefty, and Oakland has poised itself to receive similar production from the outfield for the final two months of the season as well as in 2015. The A’s are all-in in their attempt to bring home the 2014 World Series while the Red Sox were steadfast at the deadline in their quest to acquire proven Major League talent; the Sox would only deal Lester for a player like Cespedes in return, and the Athletics would only be willing to deal an important part of their current lineup if they felt they had someone ready to pick up the slack. Without Reddick, Cespedes for Lester and Gomes would not have even been considered by the A’s.

 

Of course, the question we must ask ourselves in any such case is if the player’s production will be sustainable. For Reddick, the answer is no. Reddick’s ISO and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the second half are much higher than his career averages. These are two of the most volatile metrics in baseball, and large differences from career norms can often be attributed to luck and/or small sample sizes, both of which are factors here. In addition, according to Baseball Heat Maps Reddick’s average fly ball length has been only one foot greater post-injury than pre-injury, implying he has had some luck with fly balls turning into doubles or home runs.

 

That being said, Reddick’s recent production should not be completely discounted. His line drive and strikeout rates are a good sign at nearly 5% and 15% better than his career averages, respectively, suggesting that the slugger is seeing the ball and squaring it up better since his return from the DL. This is not to mention the value of having Reddick back in the field for the second half, where he has always excelled.

 

Over the past year and a half, Josh Reddick has not looked like the great player he was in 2012. However, with some nagging injuries behind him Reddick looks poised for a solid, if not spectacular, end of 2014. With the A’s in win now mode, trading Cespedes for an ace in Jon Lester with Reddick ready to make up for the lost production makes perfect sense, and is why he is the man who made this deal possible.

 

And now for your viewing entertainment, a collection of some of my favorite Josh Reddick GIFs. You’re welcome.

 

Showing off the cannon

 

“If you test me, you will fail” -Josh Reddick (probably)

 

PIMP IT JOSH!

 

Nbd, just Reddick doing his best Spiderman impression

 

Oops, he did it again! IN THE SAME GAME, PEOPLE

 

Nothing like a couple of celebratory pies to the face

 

“Sorry about that pie man, high fi–OH WAIT I GOT TWO PIES!”

Quick Take: 5 Prospects to Watch

 

Scouting high school players in the Atlanta area has afforded me the opportunity to see some of baseball’s best young talent. Here is a look at five young players who stood out to me with their tools, and how their abilities were represented in TrackMan data.

 

Anthony Molina        RHP        Pembroke Pines, FL

 

At 6’5” 190 lbs, Molina has plenty of room left to grow into his frame and become even more menacing on the mound, which is a scary thought. When I watched Molina, he sat 88-90 MPH on his fastball with good action and a high spin rate at around 2200-2300 RPM (Major League average spin rate on a fastball is around 2200rpm; a higher spin rate makes pitches appear to have late action and rise on a batter). Molina touched as high as 92 MPH and 2400 RPM on his fastball, and I expect him to gain a significant amount of velocity as he matures. Molina also has a plus curveball with good break towards his off-hand due to his ¾ arm slot. He was able to spot his pitches well on both sides of the plate, keeping hitters off balance all game and demonstrating the ability to pitch, not just throw. This manifested in an excellent stat line on the day: 3 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 6 K.

 

The sky is the limit for this kid; with two solid pitches, a deceptive motion, and great arm speed, he could be something special. Plus (get this), he is only 16. Although he is committed to Miami, I expect Molina to forego college and sign with whichever team drafts him in the first few rounds of the 2016 draft.

 

Jahmai Jones        OF        Roswell, GA

 

Of all the players on this list, Jones is probably the only legit five-tool prospect. Jones’ bat speed and hitting ability were on full display when I watched him, hitting the ball to all fields and consistently getting on base. Jones also showed impressive power, hitting three home runs in the two games I watched. Jones’ second blast was a very impressive 381 foot bomb to straightaway center, 99 MPH off the bat. Add in a strong arm and his athletic play in centerfield and on the bases, and Jones is an extremely well rounded prospect.

 

Beyond these tools, Jones impressed me with his grit on the diamond. With his team down 1-0 in the bottom of the sixth, Jones hit a go-ahead three-run home run to left field, and was noticeably fired up rounding the bases. Teams who invest high picks in prospects want to see passion and a desire to be great, and Jones certainly showed it with his fiery performance. Jones is committed to North Carolina, but I expect he will be a first round pick in next summer’s draft.

 

Greg Pickett        OF        Aurora, CO

 

Pickett can rake. The Chandler World outfielder hit four homeruns in one weekend during the 2014 WWBA 17uNational Championship tournament. I watched the lefty pull a bomb out to right field, but I was actually more impressed with Pickett’s outs. While he went 0-2 in his first two at bats, Pickett hit both pitches 100+ MPH. In other words, essentially everything Pickett hit was a laser, even when those lasers were not landing for hits. Pickett also showed the ability to hit all kinds of pitching. I was impressed with his ability to turn on fastballs while also staying back on breaking pitches. Add these tools in with his 6’4” frame, and Pickett has some of the best power potential I have seen at this tournament. Look for him to also be drafted early in next year’s draft.

 

Alonzo Jones        SS        Columbus, GA

 

While at times overshadowed by his East Cobb Astros teammate, Class of 2015 #2 prospect Daz Cameron, Alonzo Jones is an intriguing player in his own right. Watching Jones is always exciting because of his blazing speed. Some players are fast, and others make the fast kids look like Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases; Jones is in the latter category. The switch hitter ran a 6.17 second 60 yard dash at the Perfect Game 2014 National Showcase, the second fastest time ever recorded by the organization. He is slick in the field, capable of playing either short or second, and has a smooth swing that has gap power potential.

 

My only question with Jones is if he will develop enough pop to make it at the professional level. When I watched Jones I saw an exciting player but one who relied heavily on his speed to get on base. While this skill will play at every level, eventually Jones will need to hit more balls in the air and prove he can drive the ball with consistency. My sample size was very small and I know Jones has demonstrated his hitting tool at other times, but it is something he needs to show with more consistency.

 

Jacob Olson        SS        Monroe, GA

 

Olson is not nearly as heralded as the other players on this list. However, Olson impressed me so much with his fielding that I had to put him on this list. Olson was extremely fluid in the field, showing great range up the middle and a quick turn on double play balls. He also showed off a plus arm, making him the full package in the field. At the dish, Olson had quick hands and decent gap power, driving the ball to the leftfield gap on two occasions. Olson will likely play Division I ball after he graduates in 2015, where he can hone his hitting abilities and continue to show off his great defense.

Quick Take: Evaluating Future Gamecocks in 17U WWBA Championship

 

 

On the strength of terrific pitching and a deep lineup, the Evoshield Canes 17U won the WWBA 17U National Championship today. The tournament, organized by Perfect Game, pitted many of the top rising high school seniors against each other in the spotlight for amateur and pro scouts to watch. Let’s take a look at four of the players from this squad who are committed to the University of South Carolina, one of the premier baseball programs in the country (I admit I may be slightly biased as a Gamecock myself).

 

Logan “LT” Tolbert            SS            Piedmont, SC

Tolbert showed at the tournament why he is the number 28 prospect in the class of 2015 (per Max Preps) and one of South Carolina’s prized commits, hitting for a .303 batting average, .395 on base percentage, and .455 slugging percentage during the tournament. On Thursday Tolbert demonstrated his ability to battle in at bats and his patience at the plate. His compact swing is projectable at the next level, and he should continue to drive the ball as he fills out his tall frame.

 

What most impressed me with Tolbert was his defense. On a hard ground ball up the middle that seemed destined for the outfield, Tolbert glided to his left, fielded the ball in front of his body, and made an accurate throw to first. The play showed off his lateral quickness and fluidity in the field that will help him at the next level, either in college or professionally if he turns pro out of high school.

 

Tolbert’s only issue during the tournament seemed to be a tendency to pull groundballs to the right side. Of course, 12 games is a very small sample size, but Tolbert may have been getting anxious or simply been out in front of pitches. Either way, his double during the championship game against Elite Squad Prime showed that he can hit off quality pitchers.

 

Danny Blair            OF            Bel Air, MD

Blair’s speed was on full display during the tournament, as he swiping six bases with a 75% success rate while covering lots of ground in centerfield. A slash line of .222/.447/.296 was far from desirable, but Blair should continue to add muscle and hit the ball into the gaps as he matures physically. He has solid hand-bat coordination (demonstrated by his 10.26% strikeout rate), a sweet lefty swing, and speed that will play at any level. He should be an exciting part of the outfield picture for South Carolina in 2016 and beyond.

 

Logan Allen            LHP            Fletcher, NC

Allen made two appearances in the tournament, pitching 7.0 innings with an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 1.143. The southpaw had a very solid walk percentage of 13.33% (for context, MLB BB% this year is 7.8% and tends to be significantly lower than high school), and threw 64.3% of his pitches for strikes. Add in his 20.6 K/9 from the tournament, and Allen certainly seems ready to face the next challenge at the collegiate level.

 

Cody Morris            RHP            Laurel, MD

At 6-4, 205 and having reached as high as 94 mph on the gun, Morris has extreme potential to blossom into a weekend starter for the Gamecocks. Morris pitched 7 innings with a 2.00 ERA and a miniscule .857 WHIP, while compiling a strikeout rate of 11.6 K/9. Like Allen, Morris showed the willingness to challenge hitters with 64.6% of his pitches as strikes, which is a necessity in college.

 

These four talented youngsters showed why they belong at a first class program like Carolina’s, but the Gamecocks better hope they all intend to go to school before turning pro.

What Went Wrong With Pierzynski?

A.J. Pierzynski has been a very disliked man for a very long time. He has won a number of “Most Hated Player” or “Player You’d Most Like to Bean” polls taken of MLB players, and tends to come across as an irritating guy. Despite all this, Pierzynski is normally respected for his play on the field. The durable catcher has caught at least 125 games over the past 12 years, while slashing a solid .282/.320/.425 over his career (that’s AVG, OBP, and SLG for those who are unfamiliar). None of this track record proved to be enough for the Red Sox, who designated Pierzynski for assignment yesterday after 72 games behind the dish. Pierzynski had been a bust for the Sox at the plate, and his 0.1 Wins Above Replacement meant he contributed very little more than a backup Major Leaguer. What went so wrong for a player who signed an $8 million contract in the winter to be released before the All-Star Break?

 

We’ll start by looking at how Pierzynski’s last 10 seasons stack up, and this year is not pretty:

Pierzynski has never been great at taking walks (read: he swings at everything), but his decent average has tended to balance that out and help him get on base. This year, Pierzynski’s batting average and on base percentage are both significantly lower than his career norms, and his slugging percentage has seen a large drop, manifesting in just 4 homers. wOBA and wRC+, two statistics that measure overall offensive production, have also seen significant decreases and show that this year he is a below average hitter (average wOBA and wRC+ are around .320 and 100, respectively). Let’s see if we can find the culprit for Pierzynski’s drop in production.

In the first chart, the only real outlier is Pierzynski’s isolated power. As discussed in my last post, ISO measures a hitter’s raw power, and this year Pierzynski has been terrible compared to both his norm and league average (normally around .145). This confirms that Pierzynski’s pop has significantly decreased, as we saw with his SLG and home runs. The batted ball splits also show that Pierzynski is hitting fewer fly balls and more infield flies, indicating he is not getting the barrel of the bat on pitches as much as he used to. And when he does hit fly balls, it is at the worst home run to fly ball rate of his career.

 

So what does this mean? Clearly, Pierzynski doesn’t have the same pop he used to, and has struggled to square up the ball at his usual rate. Could this be a small sample size of an extended slump that just needs an adjustment, or a sign that father time has finally caught up to Pierzynski’s bat speed? Either way, the Red Sox did not feel it was worth keeping Pierzynski around on a team likely missing the playoffs with promising prospect Christian Vazquez waiting in the wings. Pierzynski will inevitably sign with a team before long, and what he does with his new team could determine if his bat is officially in decline.

Bunting Revisited

In my last post, I dissected bunting in both the Major League and high school levels, and how sacrificing men over lowers run expectancy. However, run expectancy is based on the average number of runs; if a team has runners on first and second with no outs, it could be primed for a big inning by letting its hitters swing away and avoiding giving up outs. But baseball doesn’t always work in terms of broad averages. For example, in the ninth inning of a tie game, a team is concerned with just scoring, let alone how many runs they get.

 

This is where run frequency comes into play. As opposed to run expectancy, run frequency measures the probability of a team scoring any runs, which is important late in tight ballgames. Let’s examine Run Frequency charts using 2014 MLB and East Cobb Rays 17U’s stats:

Contrary to the Run Expectancy tables, the Run Frequency Matrixes show that on occasion, bunting gives a team a better chance to score a run. By bunting over a runner from second with no outs, Major League teams increase their chance of scoring by 0.076, or 7.6%. Similarly, the East Cobb Rays increase their chance of scoring by 0.074 in such situations, or 7.4%. Sacrifice bunting also seems effective in scoring a run at these two levels when runners are on first and second with none out; run frequency increases by 3.9% for MLB teams and 2.4% for the Rays.

 

Run frequency explains why it makes sense to bunt in some situations, but still does not explain the large amount of bunting at the high school level — or as I like to call it, the bunting epidemic. By using the Rays as a rough approximation for the average high school travel team (see my explanation of this in the last blog), bunting does improve the probability of scoring, but at a worse rate than in the majors. If anything, high school teams should be bunting at a lower rate than MLB teams. Plus, Run Frequency should only be taken into account in close situations late in the game, but many high school teams bunt within the first few innings regardless of score. The bunting epidemic is alive and well at the high school level, and if my game day observations are any indication, it will stay that way for quite some time.

Bunting, Part I

Sacrifice bunting is bad. At least, that’s what sabermetricians say, and the numbers back them up. Using the Run Expectancy Matrix tool provided by tangotiger.net and 2014 MLB stats from ESPN, there is no situation where the average number of runs scored increases by sacrificing an out to move runners over. With a man on first and no outs, the run expectancy in the Major Leagues this year is 0.853 runs; with a man on second and one out, it drops to 0.635 runs. Same thing with a runner on second and no outs versus a runner on third with one out; the run expectancy drops from 1.017 runs to 0.878 runs. In essence, sacrificing bunting decreases the average number of runs in that inning.

While situational bunting can be beneficial (I’ll discuss that in a later blog), even most old school baseball fans admit that sacrifice bunting is usually not a smart play, especially early in a game. So when I started scouting high school tournaments in Georgia, I was surprised by the amount of sacrificing. It seems like almost anytime there is a runner on second teams try to bunt him over, regardless of the score and inning. Naturally, this raises some questions. Are high school travel team coaches simply stuck in old school ways? Or is there something different about the high school game that makes bunting smarter?

Unfortunately, there are no compiled statistics from these tournaments to use for analysis, so we will have to make due with a team that seems fairly representative of the population: the East Cobb Rays 17U. The Rays are hovering right around .500 (10-13-3), are close to the mean tournament age at 17, and have a large amount of data which decreases variability. Plus, their stats pass the eye test: an average at .265 with high walk and strikeout rates with a low slugging percentage seem about tournament average. Using a team to represent a league is never preferable or extremely indicative, but with limited resources it is an agreeable start.

By using the 2014 MLB and East Cobb Rays’ stats, we can create Run Expectancy Matrix’s for both teams to see if bunting makes more sense in the high school game than in the pros.

 

Based on these tables, the sacrifice still does not seem like a smart play. In fact, run expectancy dropped more for the Rays by sacrificing in bunt situations than it did for MLB teams: -.243 runs vs. -.218 runs when sacrifice bunting with a man on first and no outs, and -.162 runs vs. -.139 runs when sacrificing a man over to third with no outs. Not only are high school coaches hurting their chances of maximizing scoring, but they are doing it at a worse rate than MLB managers.

So why is it that sacrifice bunting may even be less beneficial in high school than in the majors? The main reason seems to be OBP. Major League average OBP is normally around .320, and sits at .315 this season; the Rays’ OBP is .370, and most high school travel teams are at around that mark. Pitchers at the high school level are simply wilder than their major league counterparts, which means outs are less frequent in low amateur ball. Outs are precious in baseball, and giving them up in high school when they are 5% less likely to happen than in the majors seems ludicrous.

Of course, there are many variables imbedded in this research that can make us question the results. The talent is spread extremely disproportionately within teams, so there may be times when a struggling 9-hole hitter is best served moving a man over in scoring position for the All-American batting leadoff. Or the visiting pitcher could be a stud prospect with pinpoint accuracy, lessening the home team’s chances of walking and decreasing the value of its outs. Maybe other factors such as high school players’ abilities to drop a bunt or the increased probability of a fielding error come into play. And as mentioned above, the East Cobb Rays 17U serve as an approximation for tournament average offensive production, but are far from exact.

All that being said, the data suggests sacrifice bunting is even worse at the high school level than in the pros, which was already a losing proposition. My guess is that these coaches are simply old school guys who have lived their whole lives playing small ball and never saw a reason to change. But I can confidently say that despite the uncontrollable variables of this study, sacrifice bunting with the 3-hole hitter with no outs and a man on first—as I saw the other day—is not smart baseball.