Proof That Even Future Future Hall of Famers are Mortal

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Derek Jeter’s impending retirement after this season has garnered lots of attention, as he has embarked on a farewell tour akin to Mariano Rivera’s a season ago where teams celebrate the captain’s career (much to my chagrin I might add. Seriously, does Jeter need a base and framed picture from every team in Major League Baseball? And does SportsCenter need to cover each touching farewell moment from July to September?).

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But I digress. Jeter’s retirement has led to a well-deserved celebration of his illustrious career and some lamentation of his regressing skill set. Most people recognize that the five time Gold Glove winner’s range is not what it used to be, but many sabermetricians argue Jeter was never a great defender. Jeter appears smooth in the field and rarely commits errors, which for many years led to the impression that he was an elite defensive shortstop, but as more accurate methods of measuring defensive value have been created Jeter’s prowess in the field has come into question. This is by no means a groundbreaking analysis, but for fun let’s see how Jeter compared in his prime defensively to other shortstops, and where he stacks up now.



2004   20052006  20092010

Above are charts with fielding statistics for all qualifying shortstops in the years Jeter won his Gold Gloves. Before we get into what this means, let’s talk about the stats I chose to use. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) are both counting stats that calculate the number of runs above or below average a player contributes defensively. Although there is some variance between the two, both statistics pull from the same data pool and account for defensive range, ability to turn double plays, and sure-handedness. UZR/150 simply calculates UZR per 150 games, making it easier to compare defenders who have played a different number of innings. While these stats are far from perfect, they are more relevant than traditional defensive measurements such as fielding percentage and errors, which most notably do not take range into account. For more information on DRS and UZR, I suggest checking out Fangraphs’ definitions here and here.

 

Although there is some variation between DRS and UZR, these charts show fairly conclusively that Jeter was never near one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. In fact, only in 2009 did Jeter grade out as an above average defensive shortstop (to clarify, 0 is weighted to average, +5 is good, +10 is great, and +15 is excellent. The inverse is true for negatives). When Jeter won his Gold Gloves he rated out as at best a good defender, and at worst a pretty bad one. If Jeter was this mediocre when he was considered one of the best defenders in baseball, how bad is he now? Let’s look.

2013-2014

Because we do not yet have a full season’s worth of data from this year, I decided to pull numbers from both 2013 and 2014 to determine Jeter’s current abilities. Of the 34 qualifying shortstops between these two years, Jeter ranks third to last in UZR/150 with -11.3 runs. This is not too far off from his Gold Glove years, and the numbers actually like him more now than they did in 2005.

 

But maybe there is some hope for Jeter, right? After all, defensive metrics like DRS and UZR tend to vary quite a bit and need large sample sizes to minimize other variables. So let’s compile a list of shortstops who played at least 7,000 innings (roughly five seasons) from when advanced defensive metrics were first recorded in 2002. Perhaps this will weed out some variability and shed new light on the subject. I will include innings, as there is sure to be quite a bit of variability that will affect DRS and UZR.

2002-2014

No such luck. Once again, Jeter finishes third to last and appears to be a below average defender. Keep in mind when comparing Jeter to this list that players who have been valuable enough to play 7,000 innings probably tend to be better defenders, but even so Jeter finishes with a negative DRS, UZR, and UZR/150.

 

So what does this mean? Well, Jeter may not be the defensive whiz many thought he was. While he has always graded well in more traditional statistics (if the last list was sorted by fielding percentage Jeter would come in tenth), the more complete defensive metrics show he is below average in the field. Yes, these metrics are not perfect, but a lack of perfection has not stopped us from attempting to use offensive stats to determine players’ value. Defensive metrics have come a long way in the past decade, and ignoring them simply because they buck tradition or make a great player seem mortal only prevents improvement in the evaluation process. After all, how can we determine who truly excels if we do not know who struggles?

 

By no means is this blog meant to discredit the accomplishments of Jeter. The Captain has won five World Series while playing the most demanding position in baseball for the most storied franchise in American professional sports (you do you, Manchester United). He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, a great teammate, and a worthy opponent. Just don’t put his defensive stats on the Cooperstown plaque.