Bunting, Part I

Sacrifice bunting is bad. At least, that’s what sabermetricians say, and the numbers back them up. Using the Run Expectancy Matrix tool provided by tangotiger.net and 2014 MLB stats from ESPN, there is no situation where the average number of runs scored increases by sacrificing an out to move runners over. With a man on first and no outs, the run expectancy in the Major Leagues this year is 0.853 runs; with a man on second and one out, it drops to 0.635 runs. Same thing with a runner on second and no outs versus a runner on third with one out; the run expectancy drops from 1.017 runs to 0.878 runs. In essence, sacrificing bunting decreases the average number of runs in that inning.

While situational bunting can be beneficial (I’ll discuss that in a later blog), even most old school baseball fans admit that sacrifice bunting is usually not a smart play, especially early in a game. So when I started scouting high school tournaments in Georgia, I was surprised by the amount of sacrificing. It seems like almost anytime there is a runner on second teams try to bunt him over, regardless of the score and inning. Naturally, this raises some questions. Are high school travel team coaches simply stuck in old school ways? Or is there something different about the high school game that makes bunting smarter?

Unfortunately, there are no compiled statistics from these tournaments to use for analysis, so we will have to make due with a team that seems fairly representative of the population: the East Cobb Rays 17U. The Rays are hovering right around .500 (10-13-3), are close to the mean tournament age at 17, and have a large amount of data which decreases variability. Plus, their stats pass the eye test: an average at .265 with high walk and strikeout rates with a low slugging percentage seem about tournament average. Using a team to represent a league is never preferable or extremely indicative, but with limited resources it is an agreeable start.

By using the 2014 MLB and East Cobb Rays’ stats, we can create Run Expectancy Matrix’s for both teams to see if bunting makes more sense in the high school game than in the pros.

 

Based on these tables, the sacrifice still does not seem like a smart play. In fact, run expectancy dropped more for the Rays by sacrificing in bunt situations than it did for MLB teams: -.243 runs vs. -.218 runs when sacrifice bunting with a man on first and no outs, and -.162 runs vs. -.139 runs when sacrificing a man over to third with no outs. Not only are high school coaches hurting their chances of maximizing scoring, but they are doing it at a worse rate than MLB managers.

So why is it that sacrifice bunting may even be less beneficial in high school than in the majors? The main reason seems to be OBP. Major League average OBP is normally around .320, and sits at .315 this season; the Rays’ OBP is .370, and most high school travel teams are at around that mark. Pitchers at the high school level are simply wilder than their major league counterparts, which means outs are less frequent in low amateur ball. Outs are precious in baseball, and giving them up in high school when they are 5% less likely to happen than in the majors seems ludicrous.

Of course, there are many variables imbedded in this research that can make us question the results. The talent is spread extremely disproportionately within teams, so there may be times when a struggling 9-hole hitter is best served moving a man over in scoring position for the All-American batting leadoff. Or the visiting pitcher could be a stud prospect with pinpoint accuracy, lessening the home team’s chances of walking and decreasing the value of its outs. Maybe other factors such as high school players’ abilities to drop a bunt or the increased probability of a fielding error come into play. And as mentioned above, the East Cobb Rays 17U serve as an approximation for tournament average offensive production, but are far from exact.

All that being said, the data suggests sacrifice bunting is even worse at the high school level than in the pros, which was already a losing proposition. My guess is that these coaches are simply old school guys who have lived their whole lives playing small ball and never saw a reason to change. But I can confidently say that despite the uncontrollable variables of this study, sacrifice bunting with the 3-hole hitter with no outs and a man on first—as I saw the other day—is not smart baseball.